Ukraine crisis and Indian diplomacy
Probably never in the history of the last 7 decades India had faced such a perplexing situation with respect to its stand that needs to be taken on a prevailing international crisis. Yes, we are pointing to the latest Ukraine crisis which has emerged grim. No neutral country in the world will be as tense as India for more than one reason.
One of the rare video of the NATO meeting where then US president Trump registering his protest against Germany in strongest words in softest possible diplomacy
Pakistan and China would be the two countries in the world who may be eagerly waiting for the first missile attack to take place so that the door of greatest opportunity to rewrite the world's allies could be worked out capitalizing rather than misusing this opportunity.
Must listen to this moving speech by Ambassador of India to Romania - Mr Rahul Srivastava, onboard Air India's evacuation flight from Bucharest, Romania. 219 Indian Nationals who were stranded in Ukraine before flights departure to India.
India will find itself caught between devil and sea as supporting or not supporting either Russia or USA would burn its fingers. India has grown closer to the USA in the last decade especially after the contemporary government has taken control of administration since 2014. But this newly founded friendship was drawn closer never at the expense of our all whether friend USSR turned Russia.
Under the circumstances, India cannot endorse the stand of Russia which carries an intention to re-annex Ukraine which is one of the breakaway territories, once an integral part of the USSR. Nor can take a stand in favor of Ukraine which has full support from not only the USA but NATO.
Any diplomacy in favor of Ukraine will annoy Russia which obviously we will not but any move even in the diplomatic way in favor of Russia will hurt NATO which mainly consists of England, France, and Germany which means a lot to today's India.
The biggest tragedy of this emerging geopolitical situation is that opportunistic China and Pakistan will leave no chance to fish in troubled water to cause harm and bring fissures to the long-standing Indo-Russia friendship. Opportunist China has already openly declared its support to Russia and Pakistan which is an undeclared slave of China too would silently stand behind them.
Under these Grim circumstances if a war broke out between NATO and Russia, then if China makes any dirty moves at Dokhlam or Arunachal Pradesh in order to provoke India for some similar situation that happened recently, then Russia will eschew interference and if the USA interferes through QUAD, India will be perplexed as may Russia, as China is with Russia in the Ukraine crisis, Russia cannot take a stand against China at Indian borders. If the situation is not handled properly, China with the help of Pakistan will do anything possible to widen the fissure between India and its best all-whether friend Russia which needs to be taken care of.
Last, not least there are a good number of Indian students especially medicine students in Ukraine, It is surprising no media has ever mentioned anything about their apprehensions or about the possible eventuality in case the war broke out.
The basic reason which resulted in this crisis is more than one. Apart from Russia's desire to annex Ukraine, the desire of Ukraine to become a member of NATO is another biggest reason.
Complete history of Ukraine from ancient times to the contemporary briefed in the above video
Vladimir Putin used this intent as a reason to mount military pressure on Ukraine saying that NATO accepting Ukraine as a member will breach the Minsk Agreement signed between Russia and Ukraine and also endanger the security of Russia & its Sovereignty.
Amid these developments, some surprising differences of opinion is taking place as NATO allies with France & Germany take a stand against NATO and meet Vladimir Putin directly to lower the temperature on the war mongering of the USA! The basic reason for the same is that Russia exports approximately 23.3 billion cubic feet per day of Natural Gas (72% to Europe) via the Russia Europe pipeline whereas the US exports 9.6 billion cubic feet per day to various Nations.
Russian gas to Europe costs around $270 per MMTU to (Germany) whereas the USA sells gas at ruling market prices which are on average, US $ 1000+ per MMTU! Almost 4 times higher than the Russian CNG price! In a nutshell, the US does not produce enough natural gas anywhere near Russia to fill any void left by Russia and also sells CNG at prices up to 4 times higher than Russia!
Resue of India students from Ukraine status being evaluated with contemporary facts and stature of India
For Europe, the potential consequences of the USA sanctioning supplies of Russian gas to the European Union would be catastrophic! So.. the USA is pressing for sanctions on Russia (on the pretext of Ukraine) typical of the business-minded USA which is totally understandable.
The USA and Europe were selling them weapons to resist “so-called” Russian invasion that had already put Ukraine in a deep financial crisis. Initially, the EU and "US sold weapons and filled up their forex and I predict non of the NATO would involved directly into this war by tactfully withdrawing from the scene in the name of back support.
Indian Civil Aviation Minister Jyotirai Scindia welcoming and adving students to motivate other fellow students stranded at Ukraine
Finally, Ukraine will realize it is isolated that it has to fight war entirely on its own which is impossible and totally futile against mighty Russia, but only when it is too late. Putin pretended to withdraw from Belarus, only to throw an attack on another region with full might which matters to them for an advantageous position for Russia.
Indian students travelling from Ukraine towards polond on their way towards border enjoying more even during this crisis speaks a lot on their confidence over contemporary Indian administration and leadership.
If we go through the entire episodes from beginning to date, we can easily assume Putin never wanted a war with Ukraine, but the situation was thrust on Russia by the USA. With an intention to achieve the objectives of a crisis in the region USA announced Donetsk and Luhansk as independent Republics aligned with Russia which provoked Russia as required by the USA.
Cracks in NATO seem to be imminent after this crisis as the trustworthiness of the organization will be under question. Russia successfully established a new gas pipeline project with Germany which was stalled by the USA since 2020 as Germany succumbed to USA pressure then, which Vladimir Putin successfully managed to convince Germany earlier to go against the USA to meet Germany’s CNG gas requirements.(The rates would be one fourth of what USA charges Germany).
Turkey had gone against NATO previously to buy S-400 & sided with Russia but in the Ukraine conflict, he was supporting NATO which needs to be analyzed in the days to patiently.
Putin's open acceptance of China's alliance and Russia's improved relations with Cuba and Venezuela resulted in possibilities of Russian presence in South America which are in the backyard of the USA!
The USA played a big game to increase its defense business and pressurize Germany to discontinue the gas pipeline project with Russia after the war break out as NATO members are obligated to support each other as per the protocol treaty among NATO.
In short...Without firing a single shot, Vladimir Putin managed to bring but huge fissures among NATO which I hope could go to the extent of Germany moving away from NATO along with a couple of its European friends.
Amid this, it is heartening to learn India showed the entire world that we are no more. puppets of the US or West or any other country of this world. India had come of age as a powerful Nation with a mind of its own, thanks to our renewed foreign policy of Modi Govt which reflects our backbone as was shown through Indian stand during Palestinian Israel crisis and many others.
Just like the sudden blue moon pull out of troops from Afghanistan leaving behind approximately USD $ 80 billion worth of military equipment, this contemporary Ukraine crisis which seems to have been created by the USA itself has further declined Joe Biden’s popularity worldwide!
Sudesh DJ Vashishtha
Indore MP India
15th Feb 2022
10:30 am
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